Modeling Campaign Optimization Strategies in Political Elections under Uncertainty

Authors(3) :-Kizito Paul MUBIRU, Senfuka CHRISTOPHER, Maureen N. SSEMPIJJA

In most political campaigns,the overall goal of every candidate is to maximize the number of voters during the election exercise.In such an effort,cost effective methods in choosing the optimal campaign strategy areparamount.In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed that optimize campaign strategies of a political candidate.Considering uncertainty in voter support and cost implications in holding political rallies,we formulate a finite state markov decision process model where states of a markov chain represent possible states of support among voters.Using daily equal intervals,thecandidates’s decision of whether or not to campaign and hold a political rally at a given location were made using discrete time Markov chains and dynamic programming over a finite period planning horizon.Empirical data was collected from two locations on a daily basis during the campaign exercise.The data collected was analyzed and tested to establish the optimal campaign strategy and costs at the respective locations.Results from the study indicated the existence of an optimal state-dependent campaign strategy and costs at the respective political rally locations.

Kizito Paul MUBIRU
Department of Mechanical & Production Engineering, Kyambogo University, Kyambogo, Uganda
Senfuka CHRISTOPHER
Department of Engineering, Kabaale University, Kabaale, Uganda
Maureen N. SSEMPIJJA
Department of Mechanical & Production Engineering, Kyambogo University, Kyambogo, Uganda

Campaign, Elections, Modeling, Optimization,Uncertainty

  1. Malloy L,Merkowitz S(2016) Going positive:The Effects of Negative and Positive advertising on candidate success and voter turnout.Research and Politics,3(1)
  2. Peterson D (2014) Uncertainty and Campaigns-The Psychological Mechanism behind Campaigns-Induced priming,Sage Journals,1-35
  3. Barkan J,Bruno J (1972) Operations Research in Planning Political Campaign Strategies,INFORMS,20(5),925-941
  4. Shane H (1977) Mathematical Models for Economic and Political Advertising Campaigns,INFORMS,1-14
  5. Belenky A (2005) Competitive Strategies of U.S. Election Campaigns,Computers andMathematics with Applications,49(1),53-71
  6. Altshuler Y,Shmueli E,Zyskind G,Lederman O,Oliver N,Pentland A (2006),Annals of OperationsResearch,144(1),201-234
  7. Samuelson D ( 2012) Politics & Analytics: The Election that confounded everybody,Informs,43(6)
  8. Rigdon S,Jacobson S,Sewell E,Rigdon C(2009)A Bayesian Prediction Model for the U.S. Presidential Election,American Politics Research,37(4),700-724.
  9. Davis O,Hinich M,Odeshook P (1970) An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process,The American Political Science Review,64(2),426-448
  10. Nickerson D,Rogers T (2016) Political Campaigns and Big Data,Journal of EconomicPerspectives,28(2),51-74.

Publication Details

Published in : Volume 2 | Issue 2 | 2018
Date of Publication : 2018-06-30
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 13-20
Manuscript Number : IJSRMME18225
Publisher : Technoscience Academy

Cite This Article :

Kizito Paul MUBIRU, Senfuka CHRISTOPHER, Maureen N. SSEMPIJJA, "Modeling Campaign Optimization Strategies in Political Elections under Uncertainty", International Journal of Scientific Research in Mechanical and Materials Engineering (IJSRMME), ISSN : 2457-0435, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp.13-20, .2018
URL : https://ijsrmme.com/IJSRMME18225

Article Preview

Follow Us

Contact Us

  • Phone: +91 - 8160745806 ( WhatsApp )

  • Email: ijsrmme@gmail.com, editor@ijsrmme.com